why this exists

Forecasts give numbers.
People need to know what to do.

Prakira is a small tool that turns the next three days of heat, rain, air quality and UV into a few actions for one household, and shows the numbers behind every action, taken straight from the data. This page explains why it was made and which research shaped each choice.

The gap we kept running into

Open weather and air-quality data is now free and very good. A phone can tell you that the heat index will reach 37 °C and the air quality index 204. What it does not tell you is what that means for a grandmother, a toddler, or someone who works on a roof all day.

Language models can write that kind of advice in seconds. They can also state a number that was never in the forecast, in the same confident tone. For a tool about safety, that is the wrong trade.

So the question behind Prakira was narrow: can an AI write the advice without ever being trusted with a number?

37.2 °CPeak heat index forecast for Jakarta on 7 October 2026, the day this was built. Level: extreme caution.
204Peak US AQI forecast for Jakarta the same day. Level: very unhealthy.
+3 °CThat day's forecast maximum against the 1991 to 2020 average for the same week (ERA5-based archive; part of the difference is model bias).

These three figures are model forecasts for one grid cell on one day, shown as an example of what the tool reads. They are not measurements and not a trend.

Six findings that shaped the design

While building it we searched the research literature (36 Scopus queries, 38 references kept). Each card below is one finding and what Prakira does because of it. We read the abstracts of these papers, not always the full text.

Ou and colleagues, 2025 · Water

Standard warnings miss the question people ask

Public warning systems send the same message to everyone. People want to know how it affects them now and what they can do about it.

So Prakiraasks who lives in the home and writes one action per serious hazard for that household.
doi.org/10.3390/w17071055
MacKay and colleagues, 2026 · Journal of Health Communication

AI heat messages were accurate but hard to read

Of 31 heat-health messages written by ChatGPT-4o, most were accurate, none met a grade 8 reading level, and few placed heat in the context of climate change.

So Prakirameasures reading level in its evaluation, and compares each day with the local 30-year normal.
doi.org/10.1080/10810730.2026.2709807
Kox and colleagues, 2025 · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Experts want tailored, multilingual warnings, with accountability

Weather-warning experts saw tailored and multilingual warnings as the promising use of AI. Their concerns were over-reliance, less human oversight, and losing a single authoritative voice.

So Prakiraworks in two languages, shows what it rejected, and points to the national meteorological service instead of replacing it.
doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105817
Karimanzira (first author), 2025 · Algorithms

Hallucination is a named risk in hazard communication

Work on language models for flood communication names hallucination as a key risk, and reports that grounding the model in data cut factual inconsistency by more than 75%.

So Prakiraremoves the risk for numbers: the AI writes only the action, and the sentence with the numbers is built from the forecast data.
doi.org/10.3390/a18110713
LeClerc and Joslyn, 2015 · Risk Analysis

False alarms and false certainty both hurt

In a weather-decision experiment, very high and very low false-alarm rates led to worse decisions. Showing the uncertainty of the forecast improved both compliance and decision quality.

So Prakirastays quiet when nothing is serious for the household, and shows the chance of rain beside the amount.
doi.org/10.1111/risa.12336
Chandra and colleagues, 2025 · Current Environmental Health Reports

Heat warnings should use more than temperature

A review of heat-health warning systems found most rely on temperature alone, and recommends humidity-aware heat-stress indices, personal factors, and digital tools for targeted warnings.

So Prakiracomputes the US National Weather Service heat index from temperature and humidity, and lets the household change which level counts as serious.
doi.org/10.1007/s40572-025-00496-5

What Prakira is not

Being clear about limits is part of the design.

  • Not the first of its kind. ClimApp and the HEAT-SHIELD platform already give personalised heat warnings from forecasts, with stronger physiology and no language model. Language models already write flood and air-quality advisories in research prototypes.
  • Not an official warning. It is a companion to your national meteorological service.
  • Not medical advice. No clinician has reviewed it.
  • Not a sensor. The data are model forecasts for a grid cell several kilometres wide.
  • Not fully checked. Numbers and levels come from the data, so they cannot be wrong in the way AI text can. The wording of each action is written by a language model; it is screened for numbers and over-warning, not judged for quality.

What it does add

  • Heat, rain, air and UV in one briefing for one household, aligned with international standards: WMO-No. 1150 (multi-hazard impact-based services), WMO-No. 1203 (1991–2020 climatological standard normals), NOAA/NWS, WHO/WMO, and US EPA.
  • A decoupled neuro-symbolic safety architecture (a decoupled design: the AI is kept away from the numbers): the AI writes only the action and never a number. The evidence under each action is built from the data, and actions that over-warn or contain a number are removed and listed.
  • Fixed notices for any serious hazard the AI did not cover, ensuring 100% hazard coverage.
  • A public evaluation with its weak points stated: pass rate, coverage, plain-language reading level (median grade 4.4), and locations the system was never tuned on.

We did not find this combination in our literature search. That is not proof that it is new: we searched one database and did not search preprints.

Who made it, and how

Prakira was built in October 2026 for ForgeHacks 2026 (track: AI + Climate) by Rofi, a student in Indonesia, with AI coding assistance. The name comes from the Indonesian word prakiraan, forecast.

Your place, household and language are remembered only in your own browser, never on the server, and you can clear them with one click. If you use "Describe your home", that sentence is sent to the AI provider to be read and is not stored by Prakira.

It runs on open data from Open-Meteo and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, and a small open-weight language model from Mistral. It has no dependencies beyond Node.js, and the whole method is public.

Source code and method

The theory behind the layout of each item

The Protective Action Decision Model (Lindell and Perry, 2012) describes how people respond to warnings: they must receive, notice and understand the message, then judge the threat, the action, and the source before they act.

Each briefing item follows that order: what is forecast, for whom it matters, one thing to do, and where the number came from.

References

Only papers cited on this page. The full review, with all 38 references and the search queries, is in the repository.

  1. Chandra S.V.S.N. et al. (2025). A systematic review of heat health warning systems. Current Environmental Health Reports. doi.org/10.1007/s40572-025-00496-5
  2. Karimanzira D. (first author) (2025). Improved flood management and risk communication through large language models. Algorithms 18(11). doi.org/10.3390/a18110713
  3. Kingma B.R.M. et al. (2021). ClimApp: integrating personal factors with weather forecasts for individualised warning and guidance on thermal stress. IJERPH. doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182111317
  4. Kox T. et al. (2025). Perceptions, hopes, and concerns regarding the possibilities of artificial intelligence in weather warning contexts. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105817
  5. LeClerc J., Joslyn S. (2015). The cry wolf effect and weather-related decision making. Risk Analysis. doi.org/10.1111/risa.12336
  6. Lindell M.K., Perry R.W. (2012). The Protective Action Decision Model: theoretical modifications and additional evidence. Risk Analysis. doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01647.x
  7. MacKay M. et al. (2026). Extreme heat in the age of generative AI. Journal of Health Communication. doi.org/10.1080/10810730.2026.2709807
  8. Morabito M. et al. (2019). An occupational heat-health warning system for Europe: the HEAT-SHIELD platform. IJERPH. doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162890
  9. Ou T.H. et al. (2025). Combination of large language models and portable flood sensors for community flood response. Water 17(7). doi.org/10.3390/w17071055

Read the full literature review